Author(s)

Wenheng Li

Corresponding Author

Wenheng Li

Abstract

The Kariba Dam on the Zambezi River is one of the largest dams in Africa.A 2015 report by the Institute of Risk Management of South Africa included a warning that the dam is in dire need of maintenance. We try to remove the Kariba Dam and replacing it with a series of ten to twenty smaller dams along the Zambezi River[1]to solve this problem.Faced with the emergency situation of the Kariba Dam,we have designed a solution to the water management problem in the Zambezi River basin by establishing a model. In this model ,we divide the Zambezi River into three parts:the upper, middle and lower reaches.What should be calculated is the number and size of dams built in each parts.Firstly,considering that the overall water management capacity of the new dam system needs to be the same as the water management capacity of the original Kariba Dam,the exponential estimation method is adopted to calculate the dam construction cost.Then we employ the probability model to calculate the probability that the overall regulation of the Zambian River will be normal within a certain period of time,which is regarded as a safety analysis score.After that, we can make a comprehensive evaluation to providea reasonable balance between safety and costs.The number and size of dams built for each part is able to calculated finally.

Keywords

Kariba Dam, model, water management capacity.