A Study on the Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Surplus Forecast in Securities Analysis
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With the rapid development of China's economy, the securities industry in China develops rapidly. Before the investors invest in securities, people will be based on professional earnings forecast to select the specific investment to invest in the project, there are two main ways of the current earnings forecast, one is through the statistical model to predict, and one is the securities analyst for earnings forecast. In contrast to the two forecasting methods, we find that if the annual historical data is based, then the earnings forecast made by our securities analysts is smaller than the earnings forecast error obtained from the statistical model. If the quarterly historical data is based, securities analysts' earnings predictions are worse than earnings estimates by the statistical model. Based on this situation, we need to examine accuracy and its determinants of the analyst's earnings forecast relative to the statistical model of earnings forecast. Based on the explanation of the concept of the securities analyst and the hypothesis of the hypothesis, the author makes a model design based on the earnings forecast data of some listed companies in China in 2005, and finally obtains the relative accuracy and determinants of the analyst's earnings forecast relative to the statistical model.
Securities analyst, statistical model, earnings forecast, relative accuracy.