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Web of Proceedings - Francis Academic Press
Web of Proceedings - Francis Academic Press

Application Analysis of Short-term Statistical Forecast of Macroeconomic Data

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DOI: 10.25236/icetem.2019.129


Shaohua Cai

Corresponding Author

Shaohua Cai


With the increasingly close combination of modern western economics and mathematics, economic statistics, quantitative economics and other disciplines have developed rapidly, and quantitative analysis methods and ideas have gradually become the mainstream of macroeconomic research. This paper uses two different types of data, statistical data and Internet data, to evaluate and predict the quality of economic growth. In the evaluation part of economic growth quality, firstly, on the basis of clarifying the connotation of economic growth quality, theoretical analysis is made on the construction of economic growth quality evaluation index system and quality evaluation keyword database. From the quantitative perspective, the quality test of regional economic statistics is studied, and the traditional statistical data of the next year is predicted. By constructing a macroeconomic indicator system model, the evaluation theory and method of macroeconomic data timeliness are given. Quantitative measurement tools and standards for data timeliness diagnosis are designed, and the quarterly statistical data of national macro-economy are used for research. Long-term prediction is generally more difficult and less credible, while the accuracy of short-term prediction is relatively high, which is more practical and practical than long-term prediction.


Macroeconomic data, Short-term statistical forecast, Application