Author(s)

Zhuojun Yao

Corresponding Author

Zhuojun Yao

Abstract

To evaluate the fragility of a state, we define the weighted average of GDP, net ODA received per capita, employment rate, population density and the number of intentional homicides as the fragility index. We calculate the weights by the entropy method and obtain the fragility indexes of 118 countries. To identify the fragility level of a state, we use K-means clustering analysis to divide the 118 countries into three categories. According to the value from high to low, we define the status as fragile, vulnerable or stable. The average of two critical fragility indexes for neighboring states is defined as the threshold of fragility index.

Keywords

Entropy method, K-means clustering analysis, the degree of grey incidences, PCA, weights