Predictive Analysis of China's Broad Money Supply (M2) Based on ARIMA-GARCH Model
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Xiangyao Liu, Lei Wang
The formation process of China's money supply has its particularity, and monetary policy plays an important role in China's macroeconomic operation. Since 1998, the People's Bank of China has proposed the M2 and M2 two levels of money supply control targets each year when determining the monetary policy goals of the year. After 2007, the People's Bank of China no longer raised the growth target of the narrow money supply M1. The change of the central bank's control objectives indicates that China's monetary policy regulation pays more attention to the broad money supply M2.
Broad money supply, ARIMA, GARCH, Prediction