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Web of Proceedings - Francis Academic Press

Prediction Study of China's "Universal Two-child Policy" on Pension Insurance Expenditure

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DOI: 10.25236/ssah.2017.14


Li Siying, Mayila Tuerxun

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Li Siying


Following the "selective two-child" policy, the Fifth Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China further proposed the "universal two-child" policy, to solve a series of outstanding problems in the development of population and economy currently. The impact of the policy on population size and structure and dividends is also a social concern. Therefore, this paper combines the Leslie model with Gray-Markov model, predicts the population structure scale after the implementation of the "universal two-child" policy, using EVIEWS quantitative analysis of the impact of the aging development level on the pension fund expenditure, and then predict the future pension insurance expenditure according to the predicted aging level. The results show that the policy is difficult to change the situation of “below-replacement and population aging” in the short term. Besides, the policy will bring some pressure on the pension expenditure. But in the long run, the reduction of population aging and the optimization of population structure and the reduction of social pension insurance expenditure brought by the policy will be very beneficial to the sustainable development of the future economy.


The "Universal Two-child" policy, Leslie Model, Grey-Markov Model, aging of population, Pension insurance expenditure.