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Web of Proceedings - Francis Academic Press
Web of Proceedings - Francis Academic Press

A Hybrid Uncertainty Propagation Method for System Risk Assessment

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DOI: 10.25236/systca.18.053


Yongsheng Duan, Tengda Xin, Bao Cui, Na An, Guoyu Bai

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Yongsheng Duan


This paper proposes a hybrid uncertainty propagation approach for system risk assessment. In view of hybrid uncertainty propagation with parameters dependency of variables in risk assessment, a two level hybrid uncertainty propagation framework was proposed, in which inner and outer parameters are characterized with probability and possibility respectively, the numerical values are calculated by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and fuzzy extension principle. In consideration of the dependency of epidemic uncertainty parameters, an epidemic uncertainty parameter dependency model is designed and a dependency coefficient is proposed. Then the proposed method was compared with the conventional two level MC. Finally, taking the safety of one hydrogen and oxygen co-bottom tank an example, the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method was validated.


Risk assessment, Hybrid uncertainty, Monte Carlo, Epidemic uncertainty