Author(s)

Haijun Kang, Biyun Xiao, Ling Chen

Corresponding Author

Haijun Kang

Abstract

Climate niche models have been widely used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the climatic suitability of tree species and ecosystems. This paper presents a case study of local applications of this approach at a study area in Fujian province for Chinese fir. ClimateAP is applied to assess the impact of climate change on this species at a fine scale (25 × 25 m). Inventory data are used to examine the applicability of the model prediction at the study area. Seven selected climate change scenarios are used to generate individual and consensus projections of the climate niche of this species for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The result suggests that climate change will lead to a dramatic contraction of the spatial extent of the climate niche for Chinese fir. A spectrum of adaptation strategies is proposed based on these projections considering the nature of the projections being the realized climate niche.

Keywords

Chinese Fir (Cunninghamia Lanceolata), Climate Niche, Random Forest, Climate Change, Adaptation Strategies