Author(s)

Yutong Jiang, Xi Wang

Corresponding Author

Yutong Jiang

Abstract

In the context of increasing global interconnectivity, cybercrime has emerged as a pervasive and borderless threat, necessitating effective international cybersecurity policies. This study investigates the spatial patterns and policy impacts of cybercrime using data from the VERIS Community Database (VCDB), encompassing over 10,000 cybersecurity incidents from 2006 to 2024.First, we employ descriptive statistics and heatmap analysis to examine the global distribution of cyber attacks, their success and failure rates, and reporting frequency across regions, highlighting disparities in defense capabilities and judicial systems. Second, to assess the effectiveness of national cybersecurity legislation, we construct a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model comparing treatment and control groups across 14 countries. This includes a baseline model, policy type and intensity effect models, and a dynamic time effect model, offering comprehensive insights into policy performance. Third, we integrate demographic indicators and use Pearson correlation analysis alongside an LSTM predictive model to explore and forecast the influence of population-level variables on cybercrime trends. Our findings provide valuable guidance for tailoring future cybersecurity strategies and contribute to the policy discourse at global forums such as the ITU Cybersecurity Summit.

Keywords

Cybercrime, Spatial Analysis, DID Model, Pearson Correlation, LSTM, Cybersecurity Policy Evaluation