Author(s)

Yongqi Li, Xiangyu Cao, Wangyan Du

Corresponding Author

Wangyan Du

Abstract

The semiconductor supply chain has faced serious shortages and delivery delays due to logistics disruption and trade conflicts, while panic hoarding behaviour has further exacerbated the risk of supply chain disruption. In this study, we conduct a simulation study based on the duopoly model under the condition of information asymmetry, combined with the Ouyang inventory model. The results show that when the information dissemination probability of supply shortage α and the information dissemination probability of strong demand β are both high, the hoarding behaviour is more common, which can easily trigger supply chain disruption; however, if a certain proportion of core distributors choose not to hoard, the risk of supply chain disruption will be significantly alleviated. In addition, the analysis based on the supply chain game model shows that when the market is good, the distributors can obtain speculative gains by reducing supply, which may trigger systematic supply chain disruptions; while when the market is bad, the hoarding behaviour will exacerbate the losses, and it is necessary to increase the inventory turnover ratio in order to mitigate the losses. The empirical study further verifies that the impact of inventory turnover ratio on firms' net profit is significantly moderated by the market environment.

Keywords

Chip Supply Chain, Hoarding Behaviour, Game Theory, Sourcing Optimisation