Author(s)

Yuyin Shi, Yanjia Chen, Yuelin Wu

Corresponding Author

Yuyin Shi

Abstract

This paper presents a novel decision-making model for crop planting strategies based on the Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm under static market conditions. The model incorporates two distinct sales scenarios: surplus leading to unsold produce and wastage, and selling the excess at half price. Decision variables include crop planting area, yield, unit sales price, and year sequence, integrated with a quantitative constraint assessment system consisting of a diversity coefficient, crop rotation threshold, area threshold, and a crop-terrain adaptability matrix. The SA algorithm’s application yielded maximum profits of approximately 14.1 million RMB and 33.27 million RMB for the two scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, the model extends to account for market volatility and rising costs through an orthogonal experimental design to select representative test points, resulting in an optimized crop planting model inclusive of uncertainty factors. The optimized strategy predicts a profit of approximately 14.9 million RMB, with a profit growth rate of 5.67%, demonstrating significant advantages over static strategies across various market conditions. Robustness analysis under different market fluctuations confirmed the model’s stability, with profit variations remaining within acceptable limits.

Keywords

Decision-making model, Simulated Annealing algorithm, Orthogonal experimental design