Author(s)

Qizheng Wu

Corresponding Author

Qizheng Wu

Abstract

With the increasingly complex and challenging global economic and financial situation, the VAR model, as an important tool for economic and financial forecasting, has gradually become increasingly prominent in terms of its application scope and importance. However, how to construct and apply VAR models to accurately predict global economic and financial trends, and propose effective policy recommendations, is still a problem worthy of in-depth research. Based on the above background, this paper mainly studies the global economic and financial outlook and policy recommendations based on the VAR model. Firstly, the basic principles and characteristics of the VAR model were introduced, as well as methods for processing and preparing global economic and financial data; Secondly, by constructing a global economic and financial outlook model, empirical analysis was conducted and corresponding policy recommendations were proposed; Finally, the application of VAR models in monitoring global economic and financial risks was explored. The global economic and financial outlook method based on the VAR model proposed in this paper has good predictive performance and important reference value for formulating and adjusting global economic and financial policies.

Keywords

VAR model; Global economic and financial outlook; Policy recommendations; Risk monitoring