The Impact of the USD M2/GDP on Large-scale International Short-term Capital Outflow of NIEs Based on Logit Model
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This paper establishes a binary model, uses the logit model for regression, and gets the conclusion indicating that there will be more obvious capital inflows in the year prior to the outflow of international capital. Then by analyzing the combined effect of capital pre-inflow and M2 / GDP on large-scale international short-term capital outflow, the conclusion can be obtained that when the M2 / GDP of the United States is below 50%, the probability of large-scale International short-term capital outflow in NIEs can increase 9.5% ~ 40.5%.
NIEs, The US M2/GDP, Large-scale international capital outflow.