Author(s)

Yu Peiyun, Huang Jinbo

Corresponding Author

Yu Peiyun

Abstract

The Covid-19 and global inflation pose many uncertainties for China's financial development, making the scientific measurement of systemic financial risk a key concern. We recommend upholding and strengthening the floating exchange rate regime. When setting foreign exchange reserve levels and exchange rate policies, inflation should be a key consideration. The central bank should adopt more nuanced and precise monetary policies. Out-of-sample predictions indicate that China's systemic financial risk in the first quarter of 2023 is at the historical average level, indicating no systemic financial risk.

Keywords

systemic financial risk index; VAR model; variance decomposition; risk prediction