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Simulation and Prediction of Regional Economic Growth Effects under the Background of Dual Carbon Policy - A Case Study of Shandong Province

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DOI: 10.25236/ssehr.2023.026


Xin Zhao, Yan Li, Chenhui Li, Zhifan Liu, Xingpei Ji

Corresponding Author

Zhifan Liu


The dual-carbon goal reflects China's determination to build a resource-saving and environmentally friendly society, and the realization of the dual-carbon goal ultimately requires implementation at the regional level. Shandong Province, a strong economic province in China, is dominated by traditional energy and thus bears a significant task of green transformation. Using the multi-regional CGE model (The Enormous Regional Model, TERM), this paper focuses on the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the dual-carbon goal on the regional economy and discusses the implementation effects of different policy scenarios. The simulation results show that, compared with the baseline scenario, the dual-carbon goal scenario in 2030 will help reduce the proportion of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting industries, while the service and high-tech industries will face greater growth opportunities. Shandong Province's economic structure will tend to become greener and more advanced. However, in the short term, this may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, an increase in the unemployment rate, a decline in government expenditure, and a decrease in household income. On the whole, achieving the carbon peak in 2030 is the optimal choice for Shandong Province. Therefore, Shandong Province should exercise prudence in policy-making during the implementation of the dual-carbon goal.


dual carbon target; TERM; scenario analysis; green transformation