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A Long-term Economic Analysis on the Carbon Peaking, Carbon Neutrality and the Dual Circulation Policy in Shandong Province

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DOI: 10.25236/ssehr.2023.012


Yan Li, Wanlei Xue, Zhifan Liu, Xin Zhao, Xingpei Ji

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Zhifan Liu


Dual Circulation, peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 are important strategies for China to foster economic growth and achieve its climate ambition. As a province of China with a high proportion of high-carbon industries, the industrial structure transformation of Shandong province is under greater pressure. In this paper, we employ computable general equilibrium model to predict the industrial structure of Shandong during the period of 2020-2060. According to the simulation results, the output of the steel, nonferrous metals, and coal industries in Shandong Province would shrink by 2% on an annual basis between 2020 and 2060, while the output value of the service industry will decrease year by year. This research will help to illuminate the future industrial structure transition of Shandong Province.


Carbon emission; Dual Circulation; Carbon Peak; Carbon Neutral; Environment