Granger Causality between the Export Policy Intervention and Comparative Advantage in the China's Vaccine Product Trade
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Aolei Hu, Xing Wang, Ting Liu
Vaccines play a vital role in the protection of human health. In the field of high-end vaccines, China still relies on imports, and exports are small, resulting in China has been in a trade deficit 21 years ago. And few experts and scholars have conducted in-depth research in this field. This article is aimed at the export of vaccine, using the vaccine data of the United Nations Statistics Office from 1987 to 2021, to calculate its export revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RXck) and export policy intervention index (HXck), and analyse the long-run and short-run Granger relationship between them. After experiments, it is found that under the optimal linear model, HXck is the short-run Granger cause of RXck, and HXck has a negative effect on RXck in the short term. At the same time, HXck is also a long-run Granger cause of RXck, and HXck has a positive effect on RXck in the long term.
Vaccine Exports, Vaccine Trade policies, Granger Causation