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Empirical Analysis of the Changing Law of Broad Money Supply: Test Based on China’s Data

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DOI: 10.25236/iceesr.2021.116


Pengyue Xu, Ran Xian

Corresponding Author

Pengyue Xu


The broad money supply (M2) is of great significance to evaluate the level of liquidity in the economic system and to formulate future macroeconomic policies. In this paper, the time series data of China’s broad money supply (M2) from 2006 to 2019 are analyzed in depth, and on this basis, the ARIMA model is used for high-precision fitting, as well as a short-term forecast is made. The research shows that the ARIMA model has excellent goodness of fit, with the prediction data close to the real data and the prediction accuracy relatively high; China’s broad money supply is likely to maintain a rapid growth trend in the future.


Money supply, ARIMA model, Time series