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Research on Dynamic Co Integration of Urban Traffic Motorization Process and Economic Development

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DOI: 10.25236/edssr.2020.031


Jihao Wang

Corresponding Author

Jihao Wang


In recent years, China has gradually entered the era of motorized transportation. After the 21st century, the trend of urban traffic motorization in China is obviously accelerated. Motorized transportation has shortened the spatial distance of the city, which has changed the spatial structure of the city greatly, and the social activity radius of residents has greatly increased. Traffic motorization also further promotes the process of urbanization. Car traffic and public transport are the two main modes of urban traffic motorization. The number of small cars is increasing explosively. Urban traffic problems are increasing day by day, and traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious. What is the internal relationship between the motorized process of urban traffic and China's economic development. Based on the time series data of the number of private cars and macro-economic GDP, this paper studies the internal relationship between urban traffic motorization and macroeconomic development, and comprehensively uses ADF stationary test, VAR model, Granger causality test method and impulse response analysis function. The results show that the number of private cars and macroeconomic GDP data are non-stationary time series. The development of macro-economy is the Granger cause of the increase in the number of private cars, while the process of urban traffic motorization is not the Granger Cause of economic development. The results of VAR model show that there is a short-term interactive relationship between macroeconomic growth and urban traffic motorization. Generally speaking, the economic development has brought about the prosperity of automobile market and promoted the process of urban traffic motorization.


Traffic motorization, Economic development, Var model