The Region-Specific Variability of Economic Growth in China
Download as PDF
Xiangdong Guo, Ruiping Zhang
This study uses China's quarterly GDP data from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2018 to create a set of data that includes the mean non-linear MS (M) - AR (p) models of the “form” and “intercept form” of the Chinese macroeconomic time series. The study also finds that China's GDP is most likely to be in a “low-growth zone” and least likely to be in a “medium-growth zone”. The study finds that China's GDP is most likely to be in a “low growth zone” and least likely to be in a “medium growth zone”. The likelihood of China being in a “fast-growth zone” is moderate. If China succeeds in entering a high growth state, it will tend to maintain a good growth trend, but once it falls into a low growth state, it will tend to maintain a good growth trend. It will face very serious economic recovery challenges.
Macroeconomic regional variation non-linear ms(m)-ar(p) model