Research on early warning mechanism of civil aviation accidents based on Grey Theory
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The author, based on the grey prediction method, firstly combines the grey prediction model with support vector machine model to predict the civil aviation accident proneness, and establish the cascade grey support vector machine combination prediction model of civil aviation accident proneness. Based on the civil aviation accident proneness quantity in recent decade, this paper conducts prediction simulation by aid of Matlah software to check the grey prediction model, support vector model and grey support vector machine model, analyzes and compares the precision and features of three methods thus to verify the superiority of grey support vector machine model in civil aviation accident proneness prediction.
Civil aviation accident, Grey Theory, aviation accidents, Support vector, warning mechanism