Agricultural Production Conditions for Establishing a Commodity Trading Market under the Belt and Road Initiative--An Empirical Analysis of VAR Model Based on Statistical Data of South Sichuan Port-vicinity Pilot Free Trade Zone
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“The Belt and Road” initiative and the “Pilot Free Trade Zone” are major strategic measures for national governance and deepening reform and opening up in the new era, and actively linking them will help enhance trade liberalization and openness. Because of the large volume and amount of transactions, commodity trading markets play an important role in activating the “China-EU railway” of the Belt and Road initiative and revitalize the “stock” of the open economy and enhance the “trade volume” of trade. Based on the investigation and statistical analysis of the micro-basis of the establishment of the commodity trading market in the South Sichuan Port-vicinity Pilot Free Trade Zone, it is found that the output value and sown area of important commodities have declined to varying degrees in 2018, which is extremely unfavorable for the selection of trading varieties and the high quality supply of commodity sources in the forthcoming commodity trading market. Moreover, the VAR model is used to analyze the natural conditions of agricultural production. The conclusion shows that the decline of crop yield and output value is not caused by bad natural conditions in recent years, but still caused by farmers' lack of “intensive cultivation” and improvement of agricultural technology. To this end, to set up a commodity trading market platform in the southern Sichuan Port-vicinity Pilot Free Trade Zone, it is necessary to actively adjust to connect to the Belt and Road Initiative. In the past, relying on the “China-EU railway” is an active transfer of domestic excess capacity. Now it is necessary to change the situation of “full train when leaving the country, basically empty car when returning home”, and strive to import important commodities such as grain and timber from Eurasian countries rich in resources. In addition, it is also necessary to import bulk commodities from overseas by relying on the advantage of ports to lay a foundation for the establishment of commodity trading market platform, and promote high-quality economic development from the supply side according to the product perspective.
“the belt and road” initiative; Commodity trading market; Agricultural production conditions; South sichuan port-vicinity pilot free trade zone; Var model