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The Impact of Aging Population on Industrial Structure Upgrading-- Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Threshold Effect

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DOI: 10.25236/sser.2019.121


Bingting Kang

Corresponding Author

Bingting Kang


In this paper, panel data of 30 provinces from 2006 to 2016 in China were used to study the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading. The empirical results show that, on the whole, the aging population is not conducive to the upgrading of a country's industrial structure. However, this effect is limited by the level of regional economic urbanization and population urbanization. Research shows that when the level of economic urbanization of a region exceeds the threshold value of 2.2785, or the level of population urbanization exceeds the threshold value of 2.2788, the aging population will promote the transformation of domestic industrial structure. But so far, only Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin have exceeded the threshold level of economic and population urbanization. In order to adapt to the aging of the social population, we should first accelerate the tax reform to narrow the social income gap. Then, speeds up the educational reform. Finally, while increasing the social security for the aging population, we should not reduce R&D investment.


Aging of population; Industrial upgrading; Urbanization