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Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Commercial Investment and Real Estate Price Based on Bayesian Theory

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DOI: 10.25236/ermbfe.2019.006


Youwen Cao

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Youwen Cao


With the continuous improvement and development of China's residential real estate industry, developers can get less and less profits from it. Real estate investment faces a variety of risks, the causes of which are also varied, and the consequences are different. Commercial real estate is becoming a new investment hotspot for real estate developers in China because of its short rise time and large profit margin. Real estate investors often make some subjective inferences about the future based on past and actual market conditions and personal experience. Compared with other industries, the real estate industry has a high degree of comprehensiveness and relevance in the national economy. Commercial real estate investment decisions involve many factors and have a wide range of impacts, and these factors have certain uncertainties. Based on Bayesian theory, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of commercial investment and real estate price, and evaluates the relationship between commercial investment indexes in China.


Real Estate; Investment; Price; Bayesian Theory