Author(s)

Lingling Yuan

Corresponding Author

Lingling Yuan

Abstract

With the continuous development of China's financial market, credit bonds have become an important way for corporate finance. However, after the rigid redemption broke down, the credit bond market defaults frequently, so the investors and regulators pay close attention to the default risk of credit bonds. Based on the financial and non-financial indicators of bond issuers, this paper, by principal component analysis and logistic regression method, looks for the main factors that affect the default of credit bonds. Then, a credit risk discriminant model is built and the validity of the model is tested. The result shows that the model works well. It has certain reference value for predicting the default risk of credit bonds.

Keywords

Credit bond, default risk, Logistic regression mode