Author(s)

Dongyong Yan

Corresponding Author

Dongyong Yan

Abstract

As the fluctuations of shipping prices are affected by many factors, and the volatility is large, the measurement of the risk has become many shipping-price stakeholders’ concern. Under the current background of Sino-US trade friction, international freight prices will face more and more factors which bring risks and the potential volatility in the future can be uncertain. Therefore, it is meaningful to explore the potential impact of trade friction between China and U.S. on the international shipping price fluctuations which the freight-price stakeholders care about. By establishing the VaR-GARCH model, this paper analyzes and measures the fluctuations and risks of the international freight price index of the Ningbo-U.S. East route.

Keywords

VaR-GARCH model, Risk measure, Sino-U.S. trade friction, NCFI Index, shipping management