Author(s)

Justin L Zeng

Corresponding Author

Justin L Zeng

Abstract

As the most important raw material in modern production and life, the price trend of petroleum affects the political, military, economic and other aspects of a country. According to the characteristics of stock data, genetic algorithm is designed to analyze the corresponding data model, including gene construction, fitness function selection, genetic strategy operation and related genetic operator design. Through the correlation between crude oil futures price and A-share oil stock price in China, this paper makes a quantitative assessment of China's oil trade risk. The study shows that the model is established to calculate the abnormal return fluctuation of stock prices, based on the event research method and non-parametric test to identify whether there is spillover effect in the short term. Studies have shown that oil diplomacy is actively carried out, and friendly strategic partnerships with oil-producing countries are maintained, diversification strategies are implemented, and oil source concentration risks are dispersed. To mitigate the impact of oil price fluctuations on a country's stock market, the government should choose appropriate policies for different goals.

Keywords

Genetic Algorithms, Crude Oil Futures Price, A-share Oil Stock Price