Author(s)

Xu Luyuan, Zhang Jianzhong

Corresponding Author

Zhang Jianzhong

Abstract

This thesis has established a GTAP Model for 140 countries, 7 regions and 10 sectors, and undertaken the simulation through setting up variables including tariff impact and non-tariff impact to evaluate the different impact that the withdrawal of the United States from the TPP has on both China’s and ASEAN’s GDP, social welfare, trading conditions, trading volumes of import/export and output from various industries. The results of the simulation suggest that while the TPP and the CPTPP cause losses to China’s GDP and social welfare, deteriorate its trading conditions, decrease its output from various industries and reduce its import and export, the two organizations are beneficial to the enhancement of the overall economic efficiency in the TPP members in ASEAN. After the withdrawal of the United States from TPP, the export growths of the CPTPP members in ASEAN accelerated, while the negative impact that China has on ASEAN members’ export growths decreased. Output from industries such as husbandry and meat product industry, food processing industry, light industry and heavy industry in the CPTPP members in ASEAN has decreased significantly due to the impact of the CPTPP. By contrast, the TPP has improved Japan’s trading conditions, and it has been done in the most obvious manner. In addition, the extent to which Japan’s trading conditions have improved still leads that of the countries involved after the withdrawal of the United States from the TPP. This might be the reason why Japan has chosen to remain as a leader of the TPP and push forward its undertakings. Through the GTAP simulation, the thesis found out that the implementation of the CPTPP has only limited economic impact on China and ASEAN members, and China can offset such negative impact by promoting RCEP.

Keywords

TPP; CPTPP; the Sino-ASEAN Economic Relations; impact on evaluation